P2252 - Pensacola
Following Shell’s farm-in in 2019, the 2023 discovery well was drilled by Shell and flowed both oil and gas to surface. The partnership is currently targeting appraisal drilling in late 2024 to support the maturation of the field development plan.
RPS undertook an independent Competent Person’s Report (CPR) for Deltic Energy in January 2024 and estimates that the Zechstein carbonate reservoir contains gross P50 in-place oil and gas resources of 326mmboe. The summary CPR can be downloaded from here.
Equity
30%
Location
Southern
North Sea
Size
214.4km²
Operator
Shell
Resource Summary
| Licence Ref | Deltic Equity | Project | Resource Type | PRMS Status | Units | Net Contingent Resource | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1C | 2C | 3C | ||||||
| P2252 | 30% | Gas and Oil Case | Hauptdolomit Reef | Discovery | MMBOE | 7.2 | 21.8 | 46.5 |
| Gas Only Case | 5.7 | 15 | 32 | |||||
Pensacola
Reef Discovery
The Pensacola discovery is a Hauptdolomite Fm, Zechstein aged reef. The reef is 15km long by 6km wide and builds to more than 200m above its surroundings. It is clearly defined on the proprietary Bluewater 3D seismic survey that was shot by the partnership in 2019.
The Zechstein reef play has been overlooked in the UKCS but recently there has been significant exploration success in this emerging play with similar nearby structures at Darach and Crosgan both successfully flowing hydrocarbons to surface on test.
Drilled in December 2022 by the 41/05a-2 well, gas and oil were flowed in a well test in January 2023, proving up a gas cap of 320bcf (P50 EUR) and a prospective down dip oil leg of 30mmbls (P50 EUR). This significant success is being analysed by the P2252 partnership with a view to drilling a further appraisal well in late 2024.
Deltic has commenced a formal process to pursue the value crystallisation options that exist for the Pensacola discovery which may involve monetisation and/or farm down of its equity interest in the Pensacola discovery.
“Confirmation that Pensacola is much larger than initially thought could be a game changer for Deltic.”
Stifel, 2023
Pensacola 2024 CPR Development Cases
Prior to the drilling of the planned appraisal well, a number of uncertainties in relation to the potential development of the oil volumes discovered at Pensacola remain and therefore Deltic provided RPS with two possible development scenarios as summarised below:
- A combined oil and gas development requiring two separate production platforms and six horizontal wells (three gas and three oil producers) with hydrocarbons exported to Teesside via a new pipeline.
- A lower capex gas only development scenario comprising three horizontal development wells producing via a normally unmanned installation exporting gas through a new pipeline to Teesside.
Capital and operational costs for both scenarios were estimated for Deltic by S&P Global and reviewed by RPS as part of the CPR process. The gas only scenario assumes significantly lower capital expenditure than that of the combined oil and gas development.
Combined Oil and Gas Case
| Licence Ref | Deltic Equity | PRMS Status | Hydrocarbon Type | Units | Full Field Gross Resources | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1C | 2C | 3C | |||||
| P2252 | 30% | Contingent Resources | Gas | Bscf | 113.6 | 313.0 | 616.7 |
| Oil | MMstb | 4.7 | 19.8 | 50.9 | |||
| Condensate | MMstb | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | |||
| Combined Total | MMboe | 23.9 | 72.6 | 155.1 | |||
| Combined Oil and Gas Case | ELT Date | Post-Tax NPV – Net to Deltic (USD$ Million) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 0% | 10% | 12% | 15% | |
| 1C | 2036 | (29) | (114) | (121) | (127) |
| 2C | 2048 | 792 | 205 | 148 | 84 |
| 3C | 2058 | 2,236 | 566 | 437 | 296 |
Gas Only Case
| Licence Ref | Deltic Equity | PRMS Status | Hydrocarbon Type | Units | Full Field Gross Resources | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1C | 2C | 3C | |||||
| P2252 | 30% | Contingent Resources | Gas | Bscf | 112.4 | 296.8 | 631.7 |
| Condensate | MMstb | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | |||
| Combined Total | MMboe | 18.9 | 50.0 | 106.7 | |||
| Combined Oil and Gas Case | ELT Date | Post-Tax NPV – Net to Deltic (USD$ Million) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 0% | 10% | 12% | 15% | |
| 1C | 2034 | 124 | 20 | 8 | (6) |
| 2C | 2044 | 599 | 199 | 158 | 111 |
| 3C | 2058 | 1,664 | 412 | 323 | 226 |
Next Steps
- Complete geophysical site survey on Pensacola
- Commence contract and mobilisation of Valaris 123 heavy duty jack-up rig in June-July 2024
- Complete Pensacola farmout process and provide funding for well
- Drill Pensacola appraisal well immediately after Selene well, in Q4 2024
